Survey: Restaurant operators show optimism

Washington, D.C. – Restaurant operators continued to hold a sunny outlook even as the weather turned gray in November. The Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.1 in November, down slightly from its October level of 102.8.



November marked the 21st consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators. The RPI is constructed so that the health of the restaurant industry is measured in relation to a steady-state level of 100. Index values above 100 indicate that key industry indicators are in a period of expansion, while index values below 100 represent a period of contraction for key industry indicators. The Index consists of two components – the Current Situation Index and the Expectations Index.



The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 101.4 in November – down 1.6% from October's strong level of 103.1. Despite the decline, the Current Situation Index stood above 100 for the ninth consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the current situation indicators.



A majority of restaurant operators reported higher same-store sales in November, though results were somewhat softer than October's strong performance. Fifty-seven percent of restaurant operators reported a same-store sales gain between November 2013 and November 2014, down from 71% who reported higher sales in October. In comparison, 21% of operators reported a same-store sales decline in November, up from 11% in October.



Restaurant operators also reported a net increase in customer traffic in November. Forty-five percent of restaurant operators reported an increase in customer traffic between November 2013 and November 2014, down from 55% who reported higher traffic in October. Meanwhile, 30% of operators said their traffic declined in November, up from 16% who reported similarly in October.



Along with positive sales and traffic results in recent months, a majority of restaurant operators made capital expenditures. Fifty-four percent of operators said they made a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling during the last three months, down slightly from 57% who reported similarly the prior month.



A majority of restaurant operators expect their sales to rise in the coming months. Fifty-seven percent of restaurant operators expect to have higher sales in six months (compared to the same period in the previous year), up from 52% who reported similarly in October. Meanwhile, only 7% of restaurant operators expect their sales volume in six months to be lower than it was during the same period in the previous year, compared to 6% the previous month.



Restaurant operators are also becoming more optimistic about the overall economy. Forty-one percent of restaurant operators said they expect economic conditions to improve in six months, up from 35% the prior month and the highest level in nearly four years. Only 8% expect economic conditions to worse in six months, while the remaining 51% expect economic conditions in six months to be about the same as they are now.



For the 15th consecutive month, a majority of restaurant operators said they are planning for capital expenditures in the months ahead. Fifty-seven percent of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months, down slightly from 59% who reported similarly in October.