Study: E-commerce may be over its growth spurt

Internet shopping is extremely popular, but how much room for further growth is there?



According to a new study of more than 3,300 U.S. consumers age 15 and up from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the overall move to online shopping is expected to slow considerably during the next three years.



More than three-quarters of respondents have bought something from Amazon.com in the last year. However, in 41 categories from athletic apparel and pet supplies to insurance products and consumer electronics, the vast majority of Americans surveyed, 78% to 92%, depending on the category, said they don't plan to increase their online spending in the next three years. And in many categories, including baby products and food, beverages, fine jewelry, news and magazines, cars and packaged goods, more than 25% of those already shopping online said they will spend less online in the future.



This means more than twice as many people say they will spend less online during the next three years than those who say they will spend more online. The intention to keep online shopping at current levels and slow down in many categories is virtually identical among millennials, Gen-Xers and Baby Boomers.



"E-commerce is a channel, like any form of distribution: growth does not continue at a rapid, double-digit rate forever,” said Michael J. Silverstein, senior partner of BCG. “Most consumer categories have been available online for several years. The 'newness' is gone, and we're looking at mature levels of penetration in many categories. Right now, online shopping growth is similar to the growth experienced in the 1970s and 1980s by catalog merchants.”



The few categories in which the most respondents said they will spend more online over the next three years include airline tickets (20% of Americans), hotel reservations (20%), entertainment tickets and reservations (22%), which BCG said reflects potential sales growth in experiential consumption as opposed to products.