NRF ups retail sales forecast

Retailers should be cheered by the latest forecast from the National Retail Federation.



With increases in consumer spending expected to remain solid during the remainder of the year, the NRF on Tuesday upped its forecast for retail sales in 2016 to 3.4%, from the 3.1% forecast earlier.



Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the overall figure, are expected to increase 7% to 10% year-over-year rather than the 6% to 9% forecast earlier.



“Economic indicators are showing positive trends for retail,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, citing the improved housing market, job growth, higher wages and other factors that have boosted consumer spending.



Retail sales in the first half of 2016 performed at a solid pace, growing close to 4% on a year-over-year basis, according to NRF calculations, which exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants. NRF expects gross domestic product to grow between 1.9% and 2.4%.



“There are many factors that could prove to be hurdles but our overall outlook is optimistic,” added NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Uncertainty surrounding the presidential election could make consumers more cautious, and the combination of a rising dollar and global slowdown have impacted exports, but other factors like favorable weather patterns that will help move winter merchandise support our outlook.”