NRF: Retail sales to rise 4.1% in 2015 in biggest increase in five years

Washington, D.C. -- Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) will increase 4.1% in 2015, up from 3.5% in 2014, according to the National Retail Federation’s 2015 economic forecast. The increase would mark the biggest annual growth since 2011 when retail sales for the year increased 5.1%. Non-store sales in 2015 are expected to grow between 7% and 10%.



“The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While Americans are benefiting from a pickup in wages and jobs and gains in the U.S. stock market, economic slack has been reduced. We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation.”



Additional economic insights from NRF forecast include:



• A baseline outlook for growth in the economy as measured by GDP is expected to land between 2.7% and 3.2% over last year;



• Growth in the labor market should average between 220,000 – 230,000 new jobs per month throughout the year;



• Unemployment is expected to drop to 5% by year’s end; and



• Gains in equities and housing have boosted net worth to record levels, helping consumers feel more confident about household spending.