NRF economist: Brighter days ahead

New York -- The chief economist for the National Retail Federation on Monday released his Monthly Economic Review and the good news is that the gloomy economic indicators seen during the first half of the year will give way to brighter opportunities for economic growth during second half of year.



“While the underperformance seen early this year makes it easy to be gloomy about the outlook for the economy, I expect we will see better job and wage growth — and with it economic activity — during the current quarter and the second half of the year,” wrote Jack Kleinhenz.



According to Kleinhenz, the cause of weak retail sales has not been clear, but some of the factors were seasonal and transitory, including the bad winter weather and the supply chain disruptions caused by the labor dispute at West Coast ports.



Despite those issues, consumer fundamentals are healthy and supportive, the economist noted, adding that job growth remains strong and will generate wage pressures and increases later in the year. Also, recent reports showed a pickup in the growth of credit card debt and other revolving loans at domestic banks in April.



“Combined, these factors indicate solid growth prospects for consumer spending over the course of the second quarter. Just hold tight — I expect brighter days ahead,” Kleinhenz said.