SHOPPING OUTLOOK
The week prior to Halloween (Oct. 21 to 27) is markedly improved over last year’s second coldest and third wettest week in 15 years. The conditions in 2006 were a negative for both store traffic and demand for seasonal categories like Halloween outdoor decorations.
This year is estimated to rank as the third hottest week prior to Halloween in 16 years, a wholesale change from last year. Rainfall should be well below last year’s level and very dry for the East Coast, which will result in much stronger sales for Halloween items. Store traffic also benefits in a warm/dry period for standalone shops and strip centers but not for mall-based stores as consumers enjoy the pleasant outdoor weather. In the West, it’s not as favorable for Halloween categories, but apparel and other cold weather categories will experience a boost in sales.
This October resembles 2004, which was warm and generally dry with above average retail sales.
FORECAST BY RETAIL MARKETCity | | AVERAGE (30 YEARS) | LAST YEAR (ACTUAL) | THIS YEAR (FORECAST) |
Boston | TEMP | 50° | 48° | 55° |
| PRECIP | 0.91° | 2.23° | 0.68° |
New York | TEMP | 53° | 52° | 60° |
| PRECIP | 0.77° | 2.03° | 0.58° |
Atlanta | TEMP | 59° | 52° | 66° |
| PRECIP | 0.76° | 1.75° | 0.70° |
Orlando | TEMP | 72° | 69° | 74° |
| PRECIP | 0.49° | 0.31° | 0.40° |
Dallas | TEMP | 62° | 62° | 68° |
| PRECIP | 0.85° | 0.12° | 1.06° |
Chicago | TEMP | 47° | 41° | 54° |
| PRECIP | 0.64° | 0.61° | 0.59° |
Minneapolis | TEMP | 42° | 39° | 50° |
| PRECIP | 0.49° | 0.00° | 0.61° |
Denver | TEMP | 44° | 45° | 46° |
| PRECIP | 0.21° | 0.58° | 0.30° |
Phoenix | TEMP | 69° | 73° | 71° |
| PRECIP | 0.15° | 0.00° | 0.19° |
Los Angeles | TEMP | 65° | 68° | 71° |
| PRECIP | 0.14° | 0.00° | 0.19° |
San Francisco | TEMP | 59° | 62° | 61° |
| PRECIP | 0.39° | 0.00° | 0.49° |
Seattle | TEMP | 49° | 51° | 50° |
| PRECIP | 1.03° | 0.03° | 1.29° |
Text and chart by Weather Trends International
TEMPERATURE FORECAST * FOR THE WEEK OF OCT. 21 THROUGH OCT. 27PRECIPITATION FORECAST * FOR THE WEEK OF OCT. 21 THROUGH OCT. 27