IBM: Online holidays look bright for retailers
Armonk, N.Y. –- IBM projects a strong holiday shopping season with online sales projected to increase 15% during the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. The biggest increase in online sales is expected on Cyber Monday, predicted to grow 15.8%, followed closely by Thanksgiving with a projected increase of 15.6%.
Still widely considered the busiest day for in-store shopping, Black Friday online sales are expected to grow 13%. A primary driver of online growth, mobile browsing is expected to account for 48.2% of all online traffic during the five-day period, an increase of 23% from the previous year.
Mobile sales are also expected to rise, accounting for 24.4% of all online sales, up 9.5% year-over-year. Apple’s dominance in mobile shopping experiences is also expected to continue with iOS device traffic projected to double that of Android devices, and sales expected to quadruple.
Today’s predictions are based on historical and real-time trend data analyzed across hundreds of U.S. retail websites. The resulting online shopping insight is based on data from IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark--which, in its seventh year of holiday reporting, tracks more than 370 performance indicators--and helps retailers and marketers benchmark themselves against industry peers while driving more targeted customer engagements.
Other key predictions for the 2014 U.S. holiday shopping season include:
• For the first time ever, IBM predicts more than half of all online shopping on Thanksgiving, roughly 53%, will come from a mobile device, up 23% year-over-year. Mobile sales are also expected to grow, reaching 28% of all Thanksgiving online sales, an increase of more than 9% from 2013.
• Consumers will spend on average $123.28 per online order over the five-day holiday period, a decrease of 2.9% from 2013. At the same time, the average number of items included in those purchases will be 4.4 items per order, an increase of 17% year-over-year.
• IBM predicts click-through rates for emails sent during the five-day shopping period will be 10% higher than the same period in 2013, due to data-driven insight which allows marketers to reduce the amount of unwanted email and instead, deliver personalized and relevant promotions. The company also estimates that 35% of all click-throughs will happen on a mobile device. The highest volume of emails is expected on Cyber Monday.
• Smartphones will continue to lead in mobile browsing over the five-day shopping period, accounting for 29% of all online traffic, compared to 15% for tablets. However, IBM predicts tablets will account for twice as many mobile purchases than smartphones due to the larger screen size.
• The retail industry can look forward to strong holiday in-store sales with 4% growth predicted during the November and December shopping period. Health and beauty products are expected to lead the way with 4.2% and 4.7% growth, respectively, followed by women’s clothing at 2.6%.
Predictions are based on billions of online and in-store transactions analyzed by the IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark and IBM Quarterly Retail Forecast.