Holiday forecast predicts 2.4% rise in holiday sales

New York City Holiday retail sales will grow by a solid if not spectacular 2.4% year-over-year, a sharp turnaround from last year’s unprecedented 4.1% decline, according to a new report from Customer Growth Partners. In its annual Holiday Sales Forecast, the firm noted that its estimate of $502 billion in predicted 2009 November-December sales still lagged the peak $511.1 billion in 2007 sales-- and were barely above the $497.1 billion level seen in 2006.

“Americans have endured a series of economic body blows over the past year, from the housing and credit crises to rising unemployment, but they’re now beginning to pick themselves off the mat, dust themselves off -- and start to shop again,” said Craig R. Johnson, president, Customer Growth Partners, New Canaan, Conn.

With unemployment near 10%, this will not be a great holiday season, but compared to last year when the economy was in freefall, retailers will see a return of top-line growth -- and many will enjoy robust, if not record, fourth-quarter earnings.  

Discount and other value retailers will shine in holiday 2009, according to the holiday forecast, led by off-price retailers such as TJX and Ross Stores, low-price players such as Aeropostale and Forever 21, big boxers such as Costco and Wal-Mart, and e-commerce retailers Amazon and Gilt.com

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