Good News or Bad News?
The commonly reported monthly comparable-store sales change provides an interesting snapshot of one month’s performance. The longer-range trend provides a truer insight into what is actually happening with an individual retailer or in an entire channel. The following analysis highlights retailers that have established consistently improving or declining long-term comparable-store sales trends.
Quarterly Reporters With an Improving Nine-Month Trend| Retailer | Last Reported Quarter | Last Six Months | Last Nine Months |
| Amazon | 34.0% | 30.3% | 28.1% |
| Cabela’s | 3.1% | –1.0% | –0.8% |
| Dick’s Sporting Goods | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| Famous Footwear | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% |
| GameStop | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Hibbett Sporting Goods | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| J. Crew | 19.0% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| Naturalizer | 6.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Payless ShoeSource | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| QVC | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% |
| Talbots Inc. | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Retailer | January 2006 | January 2007 | Previous 90 Days | Previous Six Months |
| Dollar General | –1.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Federated | 1.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| Nordstrom | 6.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% |
| Saks, Inc. | 3.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% |
| Sam’s Clubs | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Zumiez | 23.2% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% |
Observations
January can best be described as a month where “good news may be bad and bad news may be good.” Do strong comps in January indicate real health in a retailer or simply reflect the sell-off of excess inventory due to a weak December? Are weak January sales a reflection of a strong December leaving limited inventory to sell?
Monthly Reporters With a Declining Six-Month Trend| Retailer | January 2006 | January 2007 | Previous 90 Days | Previous Six Months |
| Family Dollar | 3.4% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| Gymboree | 2.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% |
| Abercrombie & Fitch | 33.0% | –6.0% | –1.8% | 1.6% |
| Ann Taylor | 10.9% | –10.2% | –3.7% | –0.3% |
| Chico’s | 14.6% | –3.5% | –2.2% | –0.6% |
| Children’s Place | 9.0% | 3.0% | 7.7% | 10.5% |
| CVS | 5.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% |
| Jo-Ann Stores | –3.2% | –6.3% | –5.7% | –5.5% |
| Pier 1 Imports | 8.2% | –13.2% | –12.8% | –12.2% |
| Ross Stores | 9.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Sharper Image | –13.0% | –25.0% | –23.8% | –23.3% |
| TJX | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| Retailer | Last Reported Quarter | Last Six Months | Last Nine Months |
| Bombay Co. | –15.5% | –9.4% | –6.9% |
| Circuit City | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% |
| DSW | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Foot Locker | –3.4% | –2.0% | –1.8% |
| Guitar Center | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% |
| Lowe’s | –4.0% | –0.2% | 1.6% |
| RadioShack | –9.6% | –6.4% | –4.6% |
The interesting news on the longer-kyterm trend is that there is no pattern. Success appears to be company-specific rather than a reflection of a trend in a specific channel or consumer group. The companies that understand their customers and play by their customers’ rules experience sustained growth.
The full January Trending Report can be accessed by visiting www.chainstoreage.com/csa/industrydata/salesdata.cfm.
Robert Gordman is the president of The Gordman Group, Denver, and is the author of “The Must-Have Customer—7 Steps to