Gains predicted in container traffic

Imports of retail merchandise at U.S. ports, which has been on the decline for 31 straight months, is expected to reverse its trend in February, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and IHS Global Insight.

“We’ve been seeing hints of a turnaround in our past few reports but this is starting to look like a clear trend,” said Jonathan Gold, the VP supply chain and customs policy for NRF. “If retailers are starting to import more merchandise, it’s because they expect to be able to sell more and that’s a good sign for our industry and the overall economy.”

The Port Tracker report anticipates three straight months of gains starting in February, when cargo is expected to total 972,391 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The figure is below the 1 million mark because February is the slowest month of the year, but would be a 16% increase over February 2009. March 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, a 6% increase over March 2009, and April is forecast at 1.08 million TEU, a 9%  increase over April 2009.

The U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker are:  Los Angeles/Long Beach,   Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion.