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Election: Don’t Pop the Cork Yet

1/4/2017

In the days and weeks since Election Day, much has been written about the impact results will have on store and restaurant operators. Other than some unease regarding trade and consumer confidence, entry-level employers generally feel optimistic about what might lie ahead with policy changes to taxes, wages and healthcare.


Most employers feel like they had a big “win” election night and in many cases, they may be right. But I think it’s a little early for employers to lace up their shoes for a collective victory lap around the boardroom.


A couple days after the election, President-elect Trump made some statements that could place a few high hurdles on the way to the finish line. Let’s start with Wall Street. Trump announced that his administration would make an effort to repeal or radically alter the Dodd-Frank law which protects consumers from abusive financial services practices and prohibits “too big to fail” bailouts. While stability in the financial sector is critically important to the economy and to all employers, it’s really been an issue traditionally fought out between the financial sector, regulators and the consumers they both claim to serve.


However, employers need to remember that embedded in the Dodd-Frank law is the infamous Durbin Amendment — language critical to retail operators that requires the Federal Reserve to limit fees charged to retailers for debit card processing. The convenience store, retail and restaurant industries fought long and hard for that provision which saves their industries billions of dollars in fees. A repeal of Dodd-Frank could mean revoking those caps.


If Dodd-Frank is open to significant alteration, banks and credit card companies get an open shot at removing those protections for retailers, which, by the way, were passed when Democrats ran the Senate. No such backstop exists now and you better believe if Republicans in the Senate have to choose between the banks and entry-level employers, the banks will win every time.


Similarly, Trump has said all along that he will go after either full repeal or at least a major overhaul of the Affordable Care Act. While this may make many employers gleeful, restaurant operators need to remember that embedded deep in the ACA is language outlining national menu labeling standards that the industry championed for many years, in part as a strategy to offset numerous states taking actions on their own. Full repeal of the ACA may leave restaurant owners and operators in limbo and, once again, vulnerable to state and local activity that could include compliance burdens.




Immigration




And don’t forget immigration. All the talk about building a wall has distracted employers from remembering that over the last five years, Tea Party Republicans have led vigorous efforts in many traditionally red states to address the immigration problem. They didn’t focus on illegal workers. Instead, Tea Partiers went after the employers who hire them — a significant shift from the previous 25 years.


New laws passed in many states threatened fines, loss of business license and even imprisonment for willful offenders. Despite opposition from most state chambers of commerce, those bills passed easily through many legislatures. If you’re keeping score at home, the same Tea Party folks pushing anti-employer laws had a really enjoyable election night and are heading to Washington.


The bottom line is employers have some real political and policy opportunities ahead of them to play offense. There’s at least a two-year window to leverage Republican leadership in Congress and the White House.


Conversely, they have some real challenges ahead protecting some hard-fought policy victories from that same crowd that wants to placate the populist revolt that got them elected. It’s a good time to flip the order of an old saying — keep your enemies close and your friends closer.


For more on the election’s impact on business, go to http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/election-recap-impact-business.


Joe Kefauver is managing partner of Align Public Strategies, a full-service public affairs and creative firm that helps corporate brands, governments and nonprofits navigate the outside world and inform their internal decision-making.


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