Deloitte: U.S. holiday sales expected to rise 4% to 4.5%

Deloitte’s holiday sales forecast points to further signs that the economy is recovering. Holiday sales are expected to climb to between $963 and $967 billion, representing a 4% to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) this year from last year’s season.

The growth rate is on par with last year's 4.5% gain. In addition, Deloitte forecasts a 12.5 to 13% increase in non-store sales. Nearly three-quarters of non-store sales result from the online channel with additional sales coming from catalogs and interactive TV.

Deloitte also anticipates that mobile-influenced retail store sales will account for 8%, or $66 billion, in retail store sales this holiday season, driven by consumers' store-related smartphone activity such as product research, price comparison or mobile application use.

"We anticipate non-store sales growth will continue to surpass overall retail sales growth," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and Retail & Distribution sector leader. “In addition, shoppers researching their purchases electronically, via their PC, tablet or mobile phone, are increasingly influencing in-store sales, particularly as we see greater integration across retailers' store, online and mobile channels. More retailers are offering services such as 'buy online and pick up in store,' as well as inventory from other locations and price matching on the spot. The store is still a core element of holiday shopping, and retailers leading the way this season will be those that effectively bring together their pricing, promotions, merchandise and inventory management across both their physical and digital storefronts."