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SHOPPING OUTLOOK

For two years in a row the mid-July time frame (July 8 to 14) has been dominated by heat waves, with last year peaking in Pierre, S.D., at 115 degrees. This year will be much different as 75% of the nation trends colder than last year. Precipitation trends will be more variable as the summer monsoon season across the Southwest gets off to an early start and drier weather dominates the Midwest into the Northeast.

This week will be the start of an extended high-risk period for summer categories such as beverages, air conditioners and ice cream. The post-holiday lull and unfavorable weather could produce double-digit sales declines compared to last year. Clearance strategies for summer merchandise will need to be more aggressive in comparison to the previous two years.

A La Nada in the Pacific (neither El Niño nor La Niña) and above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic elevate the risk for tropical storms or hurricanes in the Gulf Coast and Southeastern states.