Another vote for “new normal”

The Consumer Goods Forum is out with its 2010 Top of Mind survey, and once again the economy and consumer demand is the top ranked concern among retailers and suppliers globally.

“Even if the free-fall is over, the effects of the crisis, both on economic policy and consumer spending patterns, look set to be longer lasting,” according to the survey of 345 retailers and suppliers in 46 countries. “Consumers have moved through denial, uncertainty and fear and are getting to acceptance. However, things are not the same as they were. That has been a fundamental shift in consumer spending patterns as frugality and restraint becomes the new mantra.”

Even when times are good, it is natural for retailers and suppliers to be concerned about economic issues beyond the horizon, which is why it is not surprising that the economy and consumer demand would top a list of retailers and suppliers concerns. It is also natural to believe that consumer behaviors currently in place, whether in good times or bad, will remain that way. So, you get another survey that reinforces the view of a new normal when it comes to consumer behavior.

Most surveys of business leaders tend to be a reflection of current conditions and less predictive of future consumer trends. In the case of a new normal consumer, ardent supporters of that viewpoint tend to be those companies that have benefitted the most from the recession-induced shift and are reluctant to concede anything other than well thought out strategies and solid execution are responsible for their industry leading performance. Meanwhile, companies whose market positioning put them at a natural disadvantage during periods of economic weakness and uncertainty are more reluctant to forecast a resumption of discretionary spending.