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Adobe: Holiday online sales could hit record-breaking $91 billion


An extended holiday season could translate into an 11% increase in online sales with mobile devices leading the charge.

Adobe’s “2016 Digital Insights Shopping Predictions” report predicts that 53 consecutive days (57 calendar days in total) will exceed $1 billion in online sales, compared to 31 consecutive days last year — a 71% year-over-year (YoY) increase.

More importantly, with Hanukkah beginning on Dec. 24 this year, the holiday shopping season will last a full week longer than usual. This extended season will lead to an 11% ($9.1 billion) increase in online sales that could reach a record total of $91.6 billion, according to the report.

“‘Click and collect,’ faster shipping and retail promotions starting earlier than ever are all contributing to the extended shopping season,” said Mickey Mericle, VP, marketing and customer insights at Adobe.

Large retailers are expected to account for the bulk of the online sales increase, with an average growth rate of 16.6% compared to smaller retailers at 7%. For the average retailer, 5% of consumers are expected to drive 35% ($38.5 billion) of all online sales, data revealed.

Cyber Monday will not only lead these sales, generating $3.36 billion in sales; but this 9.4% growth puts this year’s Cyber Monday on pace to be the largest online shopping day of all time, the report said.

Sales on Thanksgiving Day will bring in $2 billion. While this is a 15.6% YoY increase, the shopping day does not reach the 25% YoY increase of 2015. With more retailers announcing they will remain closed on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday sales could jump to $3.05 billion, an 11.3% YoY increase (14.3% in 2015), the report said.

In another first, mobile devices will exceed desktops in shopping visits, 53% versus 47%, respectively. However, mobile shopping visits will only account for 34% of sales, likely a consequence of poor mobile shopping experiences, data showed.

Despite slower growth in mobile visits, Thanksgiving Day and Christmas will be the biggest mobile retail days of the year (59% and 66%, respectively). Cyber Monday will see 49% in mobile visits with the largest increase (10%), the report said.

“We expect to see a 5% spike in online shopping in early November and a record 24% increase in the last two weeks of December,” said Mericle. “Despite the uptick in sales, we expect to see slower growth in total online sales this year.”

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