Busiest shopping days of 2025 holiday season will be...
The late-week Christmas holiday this year may translate into a sustained high-traffic period in the week prior.
That’s according to analysis from Sensormatic Solutions, which has released its predictions for the 2025 holiday season’s busiest shopping days in the United States and abroad. In line with last year, Sensormatic expects U.S. retailers to see their largest holiday crowds on Black Friday (Nov. 28), with the last two Saturdays before the Christmas holiday (Dec. 20 and 13) taking the next two spots. Super Sunday (Dec. 21) and Boxing Day (Dec. 26) round out the top five. (The complete list of the top 10 is near end of article.)
Sensormatic predicts U.S. in-store traffic for the holiday season will be relatively flat, down 3% compared to last year. To date, traffic this year has been down slightly (roughly 2.5% on average) compared to last year. As in previous years, early afternoon will be the busiest time of day for in-store shopping throughout the season, with traffic likely to peak between 2 and 3 p.m.
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In 2025, Christmas will fall on a Thursday for the first time in over a decade. While early promotions in the weeks leading up to Black Friday and concerns around product availability may lead shoppers to get gift-buying done earlier, Sensormatic said the late-week holiday may translate into a "sustained high-traffic period" in the week leading up to the holiday.
“To no one’s surprise, our predictions show that Black Friday will still be the highlight of the U.S. holiday shopping season, but retailers are likely to see some interesting deviations from recent years thanks to the calendar and changing shopper preferences,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, which is part of Johnson Controls. “It’s a great example of how one-to-one historical traffic data can provide a framework for retailers’ holiday planning, but it can’t tell the entire story. It’s why we look to a broad range of indicators when determining our predictions for the busiest days of the season.”
Globally, the busiest shopping day of the season will be determined by local observances. In Canada and Australia, Boxing Day (Dec. 26) will be the busiest retail day of the season, while in China, New Year’s Day (Jan. 1) tops the prediction list. In the U.K and Ireland, Saturday, Dec. 20, tops the list. In France, Jan. 10 marks the first day of les soldes d'hiver (France's government-regulated winter sales), and tops the list there.
Based on Sensormatic Solutions U.S. traffic data, the season’s busiest shopping days will be:
- Nov. 28 (Black Friday)
- Dec. 20 (Super Saturday)
- Dec. 13 (Second Saturday in December)
- Dec. 21 (Super Sunday)
- Dec. 26 (Boxing Day)
- Nov. 29 (Saturday after Thanksgiving)
- Dec. 23 (Tuesday before Christmas)
- Dec. 6 (First Saturday in December)
- Dec. 27 (Saturday after Christmas)
- Dec. 19 (Friday before Christmas)
“The holiday rush is right around the corner, and competition for customer attention this year will be fierce,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “With economic uncertainty affecting both shoppers and businesses, stores that prioritize precise, personalized omnichannel promotions will have an edge come November, and data analytics will be the key enabler of these efforts. Our busiest days predictions can help retailers get a sense of what’s to come and – when paired with source-to-store visibility into their supply chains – guide the path to the convenient, seamless in-store experiences shoppers crave.”
