Washington, D.C. -- The National Retail Federation announced Tuesday it has revised its holiday forecast upward, from 2.3% to 3.3%.
The NRF cited improvements in a variety of economic indicators -- including stock market gains, recent income growth and savings built up during the recession -- for the upward revision.
As announced earlier on Tuesday, November retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) increased 0.8% seasonally adjusted over October and 6.8% unadjusted over last year.
“The start to the holiday season has surpassed all expectations,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. “While employment data is still a concern, we are starting to see improvement in other economic indicators that support an increase to our forecast. In order to sustain this momentum for retailers and the U.S. economy, there must be a renewed focus on jobs as we enter the new year.”
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Convergys' 2010 Holiday Shopping Season Research reveals more good news. The biggest shopping days are still ahead. Much of the spend will occur online, where consumers typically find added value in retailers' web site recommendations. The survey of 750+ consumers was conducted in the first two weeks of December, and thus provides a fresh look at consumers' holiday shopping plans. Highlights:
- On average, consumers expect to spend ~$588 on holiday gift shopping this year.
- 69% of consumers said a positive or negative customer service experience affects their holiday spirit.
- Nearly 2 in 10 (18%) of consumers have already completed their holiday shopping.
- Another 3 in 10 (27%) have not yet started and half (50%) are half done.
- 56% of the shopping consumers have left to do is planned to take place online.
- Nearly 8 out of 10 consumers find website purchase recommendations somewhat, very or extremely helpful.
Of note, web site recommendations are most effective when they leverage customer data that informs personalized purchase recommendations. Here "personal" means based on the customer's prior purchasing habits and spending levels. Stores that "know" and cater to customers' proven interests are the most likely to come out ahead this holiday. More info in this helpful post: http://bit.ly/hiK1M6